Kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja kwa Federal Reserve "kwayima ndipo sikunayimenso", kodi msika udzapita kuti nthawi yopuma?

M'mawa kwambiri m'mawa uno, Federal Reserve yalengeza kuti yayimitsa kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja, zomwe zapangitsa kuti chiwongola dzanja cha ndalama za boma chisasinthe pa 5.0% mpaka 5.25%. Izi zidaganiziridwa pasadakhale.
(Kuti mudziwe zambiri za momwe zinthu zinazake zachitsulo zimakhudzira, mongaMulu wa Mapepala Mtundu 4, mutha kukhala omasuka kulankhula nafe)
Ndikofunikira kudziwa kuti msonkhano wa chiwongola dzanja wa Federal Reserve wavumbulutsa kuti nthawi ino ndi kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja cha "pause", osati kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja cha "stop". Zikuyembekezeka kuti padzakhala kukwera kwina kawiri kwa chiwongola dzanja cha 25 basis point chaka chisanathe. Ndipo Powell adanenanso pamsonkhanowo kuti sikungakhale koyenera kuchepetsa chiwongola dzanja chaka chino, ndipo palibe aliyense mwa mamembala a FOMC amene ananeneratu kuti kuchepetsa chiwongola dzanja kudzachitika mu 2023. Izi zikutanthauza kuti Fed sinasiye kukweza chiwongola dzanja, ndipo kuthekera kwa Fed kuchepetsa chiwongola dzanja chaka chino nakonso kwachepa kwambiri.
Kuchepa kwa chiwongola dzanja cha Fed nthawi ino kukuthandizira kukhazikika kwa mitengo ya zinthu, koma pakadali pano pali kuthekera kokweza chiwongola dzanja mtsogolo, ndipo msika upitilizabe kubweretsa chiyembekezo pasadakhale. Zinthu zapadziko lonse lapansi zidakali munthawi yodabwitsa.
(Ngati mukufuna kudziwa zambiri zokhudza nkhani zamakampani paMakulidwe a Mulu wa Mapepala a Chitsulo, mutha kulankhulana nafe nthawi iliyonse)
Kuchokera pamalingaliro a msika wamkati, National Bureau of Statistics yatulutsa deta ya zachuma zamkati mwa Meyi lero. Pakati pa izi, mtengo wowonjezera wa mabizinesi amakampani opitilira kukula kosankhidwa, ndalama zokhazikika zadziko lonse, ndalama zogulitsa nyumba ndi zizindikiro zina zomwe zimagwirizana kwambiri ndi mafakitale achitsulo zonse zatsika. Izi zikusonyeza kuti kufunikira kwa msika wachitsulo mu Meyi kunali kofooka. Komabe, pamene deta ikuyenda bwino, msika umakhala ndi ziyembekezo zambiri kuti dzikolo likhazikitse mfundo zamphamvu zolimbikitsira pambuyo pake.
(Ngati mukufuna kupeza mtengo wa zinthu zinazake zachitsulo, mongaMulu wa Mapepala a Mtundu 4mutha kulumikizana nafe kuti tikupatseni mtengo nthawi iliyonse)
Kuphatikiza apo, kupanga zitsulo, komwe kwakhala pamlingo wapamwamba, kwatsika. Malinga ndi deta yochokera ku National Bureau of Statistics, mu Meyi, kupanga zitsulo zopanda mafuta m'dziko langa kunali matani 90.12 miliyoni, kuchepa kwa 7.3% pachaka; kuchuluka kwapakati pa tsiku lililonse kwa zitsulo zopanda mafuta m'dziko lonselo mu Meyi kunali matani 2.907 miliyoni, kuchepa kwa 5.9% pamwezi.

Koma ndikofunikira kudziwa kuti kufunikira kwamakono kwayamba pang'onopang'ono kulowa mu nyengo yopuma, ndipo kutentha kwakukulu kumpoto ndi nyengo yamvula kum'mwera zikuwonjezeka pang'onopang'ono, zomwe zikuyembekezeka kuletsa kwambiri ntchito yomanga panja. Chifukwa chake, chizolowezi cha kufunikira kofooka mu nyengo yopuma n'chovuta kusintha, ndipo kufunikira kwa msika wonse kudzakhala mu masewera a "ziyembekezo zamphamvu" ndi "kufunikira kofooka".
Malinga ndi momwe msika ulili, mtengo wachitsulo utayamba mu June, wakweranso bwino, ndipo msika wonse ukuwonetsa msika womwe "suli wofooka nthawi yopuma".
M'kanthawi kochepa, deta yosiyanasiyana ya dziko lino siili ndi chiyembekezo, koma ndondomeko zingapo zomwe zayambitsidwa posachedwapa zabweretsa chiyembekezo pamsika. Msika uli ndi mpikisano waukulu pakati pa nthawi yayitali ndi yochepa, ndipo masewera a nthawi yochepa sanakwaniritsidwebe. Mitengo yachitsulo ikadali munthawi yosinthasintha kwambiri.